With the acceleration of the world's energy transformation to diversified, clean and low-carbon, natural gas with the characteristics of clean and low-carbon, abundant resources and convenient use will play an important role in the energy transformation. According to the 2019 world and China Energy Outlook report (hereinafter referred to as the report) released by the economic and Technological Research Institute of CNPC, the demand for natural gas will continue to grow, reaching 5.6 trillion cubic meters by 2050, of which 40% will come from the Asia Pacific region.
The shale oil and gas revolution in the United States has changed the world supply and demand and trade pattern. The low-carbon green transformation characterized by natural gas and renewable energy is becoming a direction of diversified and clean energy in the future.
According to the report, by 2050, the demand for clean energy such as non fossil energy and natural gas will increase by 5 billion tons of standard oil, exceeding the total increase of primary energy demand by 4.85 billion tons of standard oil. Among them, non fossil energy increased by 3.11 billion tons of standard oil, accounting for 64.2% of the total increase. By 2050, the total demand for natural gas and non fossil energy will account for 56%. Among them, the proportion of non fossil energy increased to 28.4%, and the proportion of natural gas increased to 27.6%, exceeding 27% of oil, becoming the largest energy variety.
The report predicts that by 2050, the world's natural gas demand will rise to 5.6 trillion cubic meters, an increase of 61% over 2015. It is the fossil energy with the largest growth rate, with an average annual growth of 1.4% from 2016 to 2050. The Asia Pacific region contributed 40.5% to the growth of world natural gas demand. The natural gas demand of all departments has increased, and the transportation department has the fastest growth, with an average annual growth of 2.2%; The power generation sector and residents' demand increment contributed the most, accounting for 34.3% and 22.5% of the total increment respectively.
According to the analysis of the report, power generation maintains the position of the largest natural gas demand department. Due to the cleanness of natural gas power generation and the integration of development with renewable energy, the scale of natural gas power generation continues to expand, and the demand will rise from 1.3 trillion cubic meters in 2015 to 2 trillion cubic meters in 2050. The urbanization of developing countries, the transformation of urban pipeline network facilities and the improvement of LNG availability and flexibility have made residents' demand the second largest source of natural gas demand growth.
According to the report, economic and population growth is still the main driver of the growth of world energy demand, and the world primary energy demand will continue to grow before 2050. In 2050, the world's primary energy demand will reach 18.2 billion tons of standard oil. Among them, clean energy accounted for 56%. As a transportation fuel and chemical raw material, oil will continue to grow in the future and will enter the peak platform period after 2035. In 2050, the world oil demand will be 4.93 billion tons, an increase of 13.7% over 2015. More than 62% of the demand increase will come from the Asia Pacific region.
With the continuous change of the world energy pattern, the supply and demand of oil and gas will be extremely unbalanced. The report points out that the Middle East and North America will be the main growth points of oil and gas supply in the future. The increment of crude oil production in the two places accounts for 82.8% of the world's total increment, and natural gas accounts for 41.8%. In 2050, about half of the crude oil production will come from the resources to be discovered and developed, and the investment demand is huge. The trend of oil and gas production moving westward and trade moving eastward is obvious.
The Asia Pacific region may become the world's largest primary energy demand. According to the report, the demand for primary energy in developed countries has declined as a whole due to the basic stability of the population, the high proportion of the service industry, the improvement of infrastructure and the continuous improvement of energy efficiency. However, with the rapid advancement of industrialization and urbanization in most developing countries, the per capita income will be significantly increased and the energy demand will grow rapidly.
The report predicts that although the world's primary energy demand will continue to grow, considering the aggravation of trade friction, which will affect technology diffusion and energy efficiency improvement, the total demand is higher than the previous year's expectation, reaching 18.2 billion tons of standard oil in 2050, with an average annual growth of 0.89%. Among them, the average annual growth rate is 1.2% from 2015 to 2035 and 0.45% from 2036 to 2050, and the growth rate gradually slows down.
